Q1 2026 · January – March

Quarterly Report

A review of what happened at Upscalers and in the markets — deals closed, portfolio performance, and the signals shaping Q2.

Published April 16, 2026 · Confidential — Member Use Only
Q1 2026 at a Glance

Our Numbers

Key metrics from the Upscalers community for the first quarter of 2026.

6
Deals Shared
this quarter
4
Deals Closed
Revolut ×2, SpaceX, Mercor
€2.7M
Deployed
Q1 2026
26
Deals Invested
total to date
We also facilitated more than $50M in broker deals this quarter.
Investments to Date

Our Portfolio

All Upscalers investments since inception — stage, entry valuation, current valuation, multiple, IRR, and status.

Company Date Stage Val. at Entry Val. Today Multiple Ann. IRR Status
MercorAI hiring platform connecting companies with elite global talent.
 Apr 2026Secondary $10.2B$10.2B 1.00× — Holding
RevolutGlobal neobank and financial superapp with 50M+ customers across 35+ countries.
 Mar 2026Secondary $75B$100B 1.33× 835% Holding
SpaceXAerospace manufacturer behind Starlink, Falcon 9 and Starship — the world's most valuable private company.
 Mar 2026Secondary $1.25T$1.75T 1.40× 1,266% Holding
RevolutGlobal neobank and financial superapp with 50M+ customers across 35+ countries.
 Jan 2026Secondary $75B$100B 1.33× 169% Holding
AnthropicAI safety company and maker of Claude — trusted by 8 of the Fortune 10.
 Oct 2025Secondary $173B$800B 4.62× 1,586% Holding
ConvexReactive backend-as-a-service that lets developers build real-time apps without managing infrastructure.
 Oct 2025Series A $80M$80M 1.00× — Holding
DeelGlobal HR and payroll platform enabling companies to hire and pay anyone, anywhere.
 Oct 2025Secondary $10.1B$17.3B 1.71× 170% Holding
HuskeysEdge Security Management platform modernising web application firewall tech for cloud-native environments.
 Jun 2025Seed $25M$25M 1.00× — Holding
BaubapMexico's leading microloan app providing fast, accessible consumer credit to underserved borrowers.
 Apr 2025Series A $100M$100M 1.00× — Holding
EmeraldFintech platform enabling emerging market investors to access diversified global assets seamlessly.
 Nov 2024Pre-Seed $5M$7.5M 1.50× 32% Holding
UnravelData pipeline intelligence platform helping teams monitor, optimise and cut cloud data costs.
 Oct 2024Series A $27M$27M 1.00× — Holding
MarbleInsurance automation platform streamlining policy management and claims processing with AI.
 Aug 2024Pre-Seed $8.5M$8.5M 1.00× — Holding
MarblismAI-powered full-stack app generator that builds production-ready code from a prompt in minutes.
 Apr 2024Pre-Seed $25M$25M 1.00× — Holding
StackOneUnified HR and workforce management API enabling product teams to ship integrations in days, not months.
 Nov 2023Pre-Seed $15M$90M 6.00× 107% Holding

IRR = annualised internal rate of return based on entry date to April 2026. Short-dated positions show very high IRR due to compressed time periods — interpret alongside the multiple. Sources: TechCrunch / Mercor, Reuters / Deel, RegTech Analyst / Huskeys.

Coming This Quarter

Q2 Deals Pipeline

Deals under active discussion for Q2 2026. For member eyes only.

Closing soon
Platson
Fintech · Consumer

World's first AI system capable of autonomously executing financial workflows end-to-end — reasoning that meets or exceeds human-level performance in finance.

Val. today ~$100M
Est. in 12m ~$1B
Series A
CompAI
CompAI
AI · Compliance

Agentic compliance OS — audit-ready in 10 hours, not 10 weeks.

Val. today ~$100M
Est. in 12m ~$400M
Early Stage
Open
Lovable
Lovable
AI Dev Tools · Stockholm

$400M ARR — added $200M since January. Targeting $1B EoY. Secondary add-on at current valuation.

Val. today $6.3B
Est. in 12m $15–20B
Secondary
Coming soon
Apptronik
Apptronik
Humanoid Robotics · Austin

$935M+ raised. Series B closing Q2. Deployed at Mercedes-Benz facilities.

Val. today $5B
Est. in 12m $10–15B
Series B
Kalshi
Kalshi
Prediction Markets · NYC

Only CFTC-regulated prediction exchange. $2B → $22B in under 12 months.

Val. today $22B
Est. in 12m $40–50B
Secondary
Base Power
Energy Tech · Austin

Battery-first residential energy. $4B Series C. Backed by a16z, CapitalG, Lightspeed.

Val. today $4B
Est. in 12m $10–12B
Series C

All Q2 Deals — Pipeline

Closing soon
Platson
Fintech · Series A · ~$100M
Closing soon
CompAI
AI Compliance · Early Stage · ~$100M
Open
Lovable
AI Dev Tools · Secondary · $6.3B
Coming soon
Apptronik
Robotics · Series B · $5B
Coming soon
Kalshi
Prediction Markets · Secondary · $22B
Coming soon
Base Power
Energy · Series C · $4B
Secondary Market

Top 30 Most Liquid Pre-IPO Names

Blended ranking across Hiive50, Augment Power 20, Forge Global, EquityZen, and Notice.co data as of Q1 2026. ★ = Upscalers portfolio position. ↗ Q2 = pipeline target. Mercor shown at its blended rank (~48th) as a portfolio position outside the top 30.

# Company Sector Est. Valuation Q4 2025 ∆ Liquidity IPO Horizon Sources
1SpaceX ★Aerospace$1.75T +106% 2026–27Augment #1 · Hiive #1 · Forge ✓
2Anthropic ★AI / Safety$800B +62% 2026–27Augment #2 · Hiive #7 · Forge ✓
3OpenAIGen. AI$852B +28% 2026Augment #4 · Forge ✓ · EqZen ✓
4AndurilDefense$28B +45% 2027+Augment #3 · Forge ✓
5DatabricksData / AI$88B +20% 2026–27Augment #5 · Hiive #11 · Forge ✓
6StripeFintech$107B +18% Late 2026Augment #6 · EqZen ✓
7xAIGen. AI~$120B +73% 2027+Augment #7 · Notice ✓
8Revolut ★Fintech$100B+ +33% H2 2026+Augment #9 · Notice ✓
9KrakenCrypto$20B +33% 2026Hiive #2 · Forge #1 · EqZen ✓
10CerebrasAI Chips$8.1B +23% 2026Hiive #3 · EqZen ✓
11NeuralinkBioTech / AI$9B+ +28% 2027+Augment #10 · Hiive ✓
12RampFintech~$13B +25% 2027Augment #8 · Notice ✓
13Cursor AIDev Tools~$9B +85% 2027+Augment #14 · Hiive ✓
14ByteDanceSocial / AI$500B +43% 2027+Augment #11 · Forge ✓
15PolymarketPrediction$14.2B +53% 2027+Augment #19 · Notice ✓
16RippleCrypto$18B +6% 2026Hiive #6 · Forge ✓ (148 orders)
17LambdaAI Infra$6.2B +31% H1 2026Hiive #4 · EqZen ✓
18Kalshi ↗ Q2Prediction$22B +151% 2026–27Augment #18 · Hiive #13
19Shield AIDefense~$5B +8% 2027+Augment #15 · Forge ✓
20RipplingHR Tech$16.8B +5% 2026–27Augment #12 · EqZen ✓
21GroqAI Inference$2.8B +12% 2027+Augment #20 · Hiive #8
22CanvaDesign SaaS$32B +10% 2026Augment #13 · EqZen ✓
23Deel ★HR / Payroll$17.3B +71% 2027+Notice ✓ · Forge ✓
24Perplexity AIAI Search$9B +10% 2027+Hiive #10 · Notice ✓
25Apptronik ↗ Q2Robotics$5.5B +1% 2027+Hiive #9 · Augment Watch
26SaronicDefense$9.25B +91% 2027+Forge ✓ (+56% price)
27ZiplineDrone Delivery$7.6B +97% 2026–27Forge ✓ (+97% price)
28GleanEnterprise AI$4.6B +30% 2026–27Augment ✓ · Notice ✓
29CohesityData Security$7B +8% 2026EqZen ✓ · Notice ✓
30Lovable ↗ Q2AI Dev Tools$6.3B +180% 2027+Notice ✓ · Hiive emerging
~48 Mercor ★AI Hiring$10.2B +728% 2026–27Hiive $744/sh · Forge ✓

Sources: Hiive50 Index · Augment Power 20 Q4 2025 · Forge Global · EquityZen 2026 IPO Outlook · Notice.co. Rankings are a blended composite of activity, price growth, and demand signals — not a single platform's list. ★ = invested. ↗ Q2 = pipeline target. Mercor (~rank 48) included as a portfolio position outside the top 30. Price changes based on Q4 2025 Augment Price data unless otherwise noted.

Rolling Fund

Invest with us.

In late 2025, we paused our €6M fundraising round — €2M via Crowdcube, €4M from VCs — to move faster on our own terms. Secondary markets have become a structurally new asset class, deal windows close in 24 hours, and we need capital that's ready to deploy instantly. That's why we're building a Rolling Fund instead.

Track Record
Anthropic
Oct 2025 · 6 months
4.62×
SpaceX
Mar 2026 · IPO Jun 2026
1.40×
Revolut
Jan & Mar 2026
1.33×
Deel
Oct 2025 · 6 months
1.71×
Our Thesis
Secondary positions in companies valued $1B–$10B — not yet in the top 10 household names.
Target 12–24 month liquidity via IPO, secondary market depth, or acquisition.
Target 3×–10× per position with IRR outperforming public markets by design.
Sector-agnostic, conviction-driven: today that means AI, robotics, energy, and longevity.
Rolling Fund · Open

Join us to invest in secondary deals.

Tell us your target allocation and we'll follow up within 48 hours with full terms and onboarding details.

Min. commitment €25,000
Hold period 12–24 months
Target size €10M

Accredited investors only · We follow up within 48h

Market Intelligence

What Happened in Q1

The most significant funding events, breakthroughs, and market moves from January through March 2026.

AI · FundingApr 15

Anthropic hits $800B — fastest value creation in venture history

Anthropic ended Q1 at $800B valuation — up from $173B just six months ago. Enterprise Claude adoption is driving $30B in annualised revenue. Our Oct 2025 entry is now 4.62× unrealised.

Claude 4 adoption among Fortune 500 enterprises is accelerating. The $800B figure places Anthropic in a club with fewer than five private companies globally. We entered at $173B in October 2025 — our secondary position is now the single best trade in the fund's history. Claude Opus 4.6 ranks #1 overall on Artificial Analysis, beating GPT-5 on reasoning and long-context tasks.
AI SaaS · RevenueMar 10

Lovable: $400M ARR — the fastest-growing SaaS ever recorded

$400M ARR with $200M added since January alone. Targeting $1B ARR by year end. We hold a secondary position and are evaluating an add-on at current valuation.

Adding $200M in ARR in three months is without precedent for a software company at this stage. At $1B ARR, conservative SaaS multiples would value Lovable at $10B+. We see a clear path to liquidity through either a secondary market trade or a direct listing by Q1 2027.
Aerospace · IPOMar 4

SpaceX IPO June 2026 — the largest public offering in history at $1.75T

IPO confirmed for June 2026. Secondary currently trades at $1.75T — above Aramco's record. Our entry was March 2026 at $1.25T: already +40% in under 90 days.

Starship cadence, Starlink profitability, and the defense contract pipeline all support the $1.75T valuation. A listing at this level reshapes the S&P 500 composition, triggers forced buying from index funds, and opens the IPO window for 5–10 other unicorns queuing behind. We plan to hold through listing and evaluate a partial exit in Q3.
Fintech · BankingFeb 18

Revolut secures UK banking licence — $100B secondary valuation

The UK banking licence removes the last regulatory overhang. Secondary trades at $100B. Our 1.33× from entry looks conservative with full EU expansion still ahead.

The licence unlocks loan origination in the UK — a significant revenue expansion. EU follow-through is next. With 50M customers and growing, Revolut is on a credible path to $150B+ within 12 months. We hold two separate secondary tranches from Jan and Mar 2026.
AI · Dev ToolsJan 22

Cursor raising at $52B · OpenAI closes $40B · Robinhood acquires Bitstamp

Three market-moving events: Cursor re-rated from $27B to $52B in one quarter. OpenAI closes $40B at $300B valuation. Robinhood buys Bitstamp, signalling crypto market structure maturity.

Cursor's $52B raise is one of the most aggressive re-ratings in recent memory. The AI developer tools category is absorbing capital at pace. We are in discussions for a secondary Cursor position. The Bitstamp deal gives Robinhood a regulated EU crypto venue — a clear signal that crypto infrastructure is being institutionalised.
Private EquityJan 8

Blackstone targets Pinegrove · Polymarket closes at $14B

Blackstone in advanced talks to acquire Pinegrove, validating secondary market infrastructure. Polymarket closes at $14B — below $20B target — but the regulated category (Kalshi) benefits directly.

The Blackstone/Pinegrove deal confirms the thesis: secondary infrastructure is a standalone asset class. Polymarket's $14B — a haircut vs. the $20B initial target — reflects post-regulatory scrutiny of unregulated prediction markets. Our Kalshi position, being the only CFTC-regulated exchange in the category, benefits from this bifurcation.
Crypto · IndexJan 3

Coinbase joins S&P 500 — institutional crypto enters the mainstream

Coinbase's inclusion in the S&P 500 marks a structural shift: institutional capital now has mandatory exposure to crypto infrastructure, regardless of personal conviction.

Index inclusion forces trillions in passive capital to buy COIN. This validates crypto as a permanent fixture of institutional portfolios. The downstream effects for secondary crypto-adjacent companies (Kalshi, Robinhood) are positive: legitimacy flows through the category.
Q2 2026

What to Watch

The themes, sectors, and structural shifts defining the next quarter — and the ones we're investing in.